The fitting results of BSSPM to pseudo data with performance measures for Chub mackerel operating model

This document showed the results of BSSPM (Bayesian State-Space Production Model) fitting to pseudo data (total catch and four abundance indices), with its performance measures. Almost BSSPM converged (2395 of 2400 basic runs and 467 of 480 retrospective analysis), with good model fitting and lower Mohn’s ρ values. Compare with BSSPM based on real data, results from pseudo data have lower biomass (TB and BMSY), higher exploitation rate (E and EMSY), close depletion, higher relative fishing impact, without extremely large uncertainties or unrealistic estimates. Due to different model structure and assumption, how to evaluate the performance of BSSPM and to compare with other models, would be a complex and difficult issue for the TWG CMSA.